I’ve just been looking at some interesting results from a survey of over 5,600 German companies conducted by the Association of German Chambers (DIHK) at the end of June 2016. The results are only available in German but here are the main points:
German-British trade27% of those questioned expect their exports to the UK to decrease during the Brexit negotiations. And long-term, around half expect exports to drop. German companies see the biggest risks to trade with Britain as the increasing number of tariff and non-tariff barriers, political uncertainty and the declining value of the pound.
Based on these results, continued uncertainty and the decreasing value of Sterling, the DIHK have revised their forecasts for export growth to -1.0% for 2016 and -5.0% for 2017 (so a decline). As a comparison, 2014 saw export growth of 11.1% and 2015 12.8%